Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Just overbought, or a "good overbought" signal?

Mid-week market update: In the past two weeks, I have become progressively more bullish on stocks (see A capitulation bottom? and Buy signals everywhere), based on the belief that the risk/reward trade-off was tilted in favor of the bulls. Even as the market bottomed with sentiment at crowded short levels, the rebound had been unusually weak with little bullish follow-through. That pattern was broken this week when the stock market finally put together two consecutive up days.

In order for this rebound to turn into an uptrend, the market has to show some positive momentum, with a series of "good overbought" conditions. Such episode tend to be characterized by RSI-5 (top panel) getting overbought and staying overbought, as well as the SPX riding the top of the Bollinger Band (BB). The chart below shows some past examples of bullish impulses in the last two years.

Can the market continue upwards, or will it stall as it tests resistance at its all-time highs? Will the market focus on the bullish message of the Trump tax proposals, or news reports indicating that the Trump administration is giving notice that it is getting ready to withdraw from NAFTA? Here is what I am watching.

The full post can be found at our new site here.

No comments: