I have written about this in the past. A lot of long-term analysis is pointing toward the 2017-8 as the start of a new bull, meaning that we would have to endure seven lean years. On September 7, 2010, I wrote that:
Jeremy Grantham revisited his “seven lean years” scenario in his July quarterly letter. About a year ago, Art Cashin highlighted the 17.6 year stock market cycle, which pointed to a bottom around 2017. I also wrote about an academic study that correlated demographic trends to P/E ratios, which pointed to a long-term bottom around 2018. I also suggested that while markets are likely to be flat longer term, they are going to be volatile and experience huge intermediate term swings.
Now Hirsch has bought a ticket on the 2017 train and that ticket is looking more and more interesting.
In that kind of low-return environment, I would reiterate my thesis that buy-and-hold strategies are likely to disappoint, especially in an era of uncertain equity risk premiums. Investors need to look to new strategies to raise their returns.